As mentioned at the outset, when considering political changes in the U.S., China and Japan, the news of this launch is particularly difficult to understand. If Pyongyang had hopes of renewing dialogue with the U.S. any time soon, believing that recently announced breakthrough talks with Japan could lead anywhere, or in thinking it could welcome China’s new leader Xi Jinping with a period of calm, it must now think again. Indeed, beyond any imminent hysteria in South Korea, this new rocket test will have serious political consequences for North Korea’s foreign relations with Washington, Tokyo, and importantly, Beijing.
When it comes to the divided peninsula, it seems that a combination of inter-Korean rivalry and Kim Jong Il’s dying wishes to put a satellite into space could well be the principal drivers behind this launch. As such, Kim Jong Un probably cares little about what the international community thinks and as before, there will probably be little repercussions for his country at the UN. More important will be Chinese and South Korean reaction, but for the reasons listed above, it seems nothing said in Beijing or Seoul will prevent this launch from going ahead.